Trump’s Surprising Support Among Hispanics and Latinos
In the 2024 election, President-elect Donald Trump achieved a significant victory, largely due to his unexpected success among key voting blocs, particularly Hispanics and Latinos. According to data compiled by the Financial Times and other sources, Trump gained six percentage points of support from Hispanics, narrowing the gap with the Democrats who were previously favored among this group. One of the most remarkable achievements for Trump was winning Miami-Dade County in Florida, which is home to one of the largest Latino communities in the country. Trump secured a victory in the county by a margin of about 2% greater than President Joe Biden did in the 2020 election.
The Values that Attracted Hispanics to the Republican Party
Representative Carlos Gimenez, a Republican who represents the southern half of Miami and the Keys, attributed Trump’s success among Hispanics to their shared values. Gimenez stated that Hispanics are people of faith, family, and hard work, who are searching for the American dream. He believes that these values align with the principles of the Republican Party. In contrast, Gimenez criticized the Democratic Party for veering towards extreme left ideologies, almost to the point of socialism. Many Hispanics, like Gimenez himself, fled their countries to escape socialism, which is why they find such ideologies unattractive. Gimenez, who is the only Cuban-born congressman, predicted that Republicans will continue to gain support among Hispanics and Latinos if both parties maintain their current trends.
Trump’s Unexpected Success in Unfriendly Areas
Trump’s support among Hispanics and Latinos extended beyond Florida. In the Northeast, he outperformed expectations in several areas that were traditionally unfriendly to the Republican Party. For instance, in Bronx County, New York, which is heavily Hispanic and re-elected Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Trump gained 10% more votes than he did in 2020. Trump’s largest gains in the five boroughs of New York City were in the Bronx County, narrowly surpassing Queens. He experienced gains in every borough this year.
Trump’s Influence in Swing-District Contests and the Amish Community
Trump’s influence was also evident in swing-district contests along I-78. In Pennsylvania, two Democratic Representatives, Matt Cartwright in the Poconos and Susan Wild in the Lehigh Valley, conceded their races to Republican challengers Rob Bresnahan Jr. and state Representative Ryan Mackenzie, respectively. Trump performed better than expected in the counties within these areas. Additionally, the typically politically disengaged Amish community in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, reportedly showed strong support for Trump. Only former President George W. Bush actively sought their vote in recent history. The Amish were motivated by various factors, including government raids on a dairy farmer and pressures related to raw milk sales.
Increased Support Among Asian-Americans and Other Gains for Trump
Asian-Americans demonstrated the largest trend toward Trump in this election cycle. In California, both Los Angeles and Orange counties, which have significant Asian-American populations, saw single-digit gains in Trump’s favor. Overall, Trump gained 12 percentage points in California, leaving the Democrats with a slight lead among Asian-Americans. Trump’s margins increased in almost every state, including the District of Columbia, except for Washington and Utah. Notably, Trump gained one percentage point over his 2020 numbers in Washington, D.C., while his widest loss was in the same city, securing only 7% of the vote.
Bright Spots for Democrats and Republican Success in the South Pacific
Despite these gains for Trump, there were two voting blocs where he lost support compared to 2020: white college-aged women and senior citizens. Among the 65 and older age group, support was evenly split between Trump and the Democrats, while other demographic groups leaned towards the Democrats by a margin of approximately 20 percentage points. On the other hand, Democrats made gains in certain areas, such as Jackson County, Missouri, Cambria County, Pennsylvania, and some suburban counties outside Atlanta and Seattle. Meanwhile, Republicans overperformed in the South Pacific, with all three U.S. territories set to have GOP representation in Congress for the first time ever.
Conclusion
President-elect Donald Trump’s unexpected success among Hispanics and Latinos played a crucial role in his victory in the 2024 election. His appeal to these voters was based on shared values and a rejection of extreme left ideologies. Trump also made unexpected gains in traditionally unfriendly areas, such as the Bronx County in New York. Additionally, his influence was evident in swing-district contests and among the politically disengaged Amish community in Pennsylvania. Trump also gained support among Asian-Americans, although he experienced some losses among white college-aged women and senior citizens. Overall, the election results demonstrated the changing dynamics and shifting allegiances within the American electorate.
